UNANIMITY AS GUARANTEE FOR RECOGNITION OF NKR
Konstantin ZATULIN, Director of the Institute of the CIS Countries and Andranik MIHRANIAN, a famous Russian political analyst are now in Nagorno Karabagh with a short visit on the occasion of awarding K. Zatulin with the medal "Mkhitar Gosh". The interview with the Russian political analysts is presented below.
- It is common knowledge that Azerbaijan has been torpedoing
the negotiation process with the anticipation that pressure would be exhorted
on Nagorno Karabagh by the international emissaries. Azerbaijan hopes that
NKR would finally accept those conditions of the problem resolution which
are unfavorable for the latter. In addition, both the co-chairmen and the
member-countries of the OSCE Minsk Group have stated more than once that the
solution should be found by the conflicting sides themselves. What is your
assessment of the position of Azerbaijan? Is there any possibility that this
sort of actions can be a success?
À. Ì. - I think that by impeding the negotiatios process Azerbaijan
tries to meet several goals. Firstly, Azerbaijan considers that in the course
of time the Russian influence in the region would weaken and Turkey would
gain more weight, and that the attraction of the oil companies would create
more favorable conditions for Azerbaijan in respect of receiving support from
the West, NATO, and USA. Baku considers that in the course of time the political
and economic position of Azerbaijan will strengthen and its military influence
would grow. It hopes that sooner or later the problem would be resolved by
the imposition of economic, political and military pressure. Will Azerbaijan
succeed? I think that in the light of the existing reality no one would let
Azerbaijan to implement this strategy. First of all, we know that the state
system of Azerbaijan is extremely authoritarian. I would say that the soultanic
regime governs there with one ruling family superior to the law. It is true
that the Azeri leader is very experienced but at the same time he is very
sick and old. As a rule, the process of transfer of power is rather painful
for states like Azerbaijan. Russia would attempt to restore its position in
the region to some extent. There is going to be keen conflict of interests.
Turkey which follows the rationale of Aliyev, refers to "one nation but
two states". The United States have started performing actively in the
region. Nevertheless, I don't think that the West or the USA will be willing
to be involved in the tricks that Azerbaijan is playing. If the USA embarks
on the resolution of its problems in the region connected with Iran and Iraq,
it would definitely prefer peace to de-stabilization here. Therefore, peace
can be maintained if, first of all, additional compromises or trade-off in
favor of Azerbaijan are not imposed on Armenia. Supposedly, the geo-political
and geo-strategic interests of the USA will assume that the latter would demand
more compromises from Azerbaijan. I think that because of the oil-related
interests pressure could be exhorted on Azerbaijan for attaining stability
in the region and ensuring the extraction and transportation of oil. This
is why I consider that there is no need for the West and the United States
impose additional serious pressure on Armenia in the view of their interests
and the problems that they intend to resolve in Iran and Iraq. It is my understanding
that they would probably try to find a compromise which would be committing
for Azerbaijan and not Armenia.
K.Z. - I agree with all the points of the scenario pictured by Mr.
Mihranian. It is my understanding that the strategy of Azerbaijan contains
a critical flaw. In particular, there is the intention to speculate with the
oil factor and the factor of the real and purported resources of the Caspian
Sea for achieving the one-sided settlement of the Karabagh conflict and the
problem of the interrelations with Armenia. It disturbs some superficial political
analysts in Russia who think that the Armenians need to settle the problems
related to their relations with Azerbaijan and agree to the proposed statuses
of Nagorno Karabagh. They are concerned that in the near future Azerbaijan
can raise big money from the oil extraction and finance a new war against
Karabagh.
I think that the said flaw is connected with the concept of capital which,
by its definition, is one of the most fragile substances in the world. As
Mr. Mihranian noted, the attraction of considerable investments to Azerbaijan
would positively assume certain conditionalities. It would be naive to believe
that the investors would agree to a situation when the return from the oil
extraction is spent for financing the war which, in turn, would endanger the
existence of such investments. To me, it is a virtual world which is created
just like the overstated figures on the resources of oil and gas in the Caspian
Sea in order to exhort additional pressure on Armenia or Karabagh in the course
of the negotiations. I am sure that no one would allow the present or future
authorities of Azerbaijan to put on risk billions of dollars of investments
for resolving the issues which in the view of many people in Europe or USA
and even Russia are obviously settled.
- You have arrived here on the eve of an important political event, i.e.,
the presidential elections in Nagorno Karabagh. I understand that two days
are not sufficient for arriving to sound conclusions. However, what is your
assessment of the current internal political situation in NKR? Have you noticed
any changes in the republic?
K.Z. - My previous visit to NKR was in last December. I think that the
elections do not assume any threat to the internal stability in Nagorno Karabagh
which often is the case not only in the conflict zones, but also in major
states when there is the risk of dissension during the elections. For example,
this happened in Russia in 1996 or in the United States because of the equal
number of the ballots for George Bush and Albert Gore. I don't think that
there is such risk in Karabagh.
- Can one say that the political environment in Nagorno Karabagh is moderate?
K.Z. - In fact, the atmosphere here is moderate. As we noticed during
these two days, the people are busy with their daily life. I think that the
existing negative internal exigencies are overcome. Definitely, today the
atmosphere is peaceful in Nagorno Karabagh. I would like to emphasize again
that it is principally important that a competitive democratic process in
on here, and the format of the democratic elections is followed in the election
campaign. From the prospective of the problem resolution it should be evident
for the international emissaries that as at this moment there exists the state
of the Republic of Nagorno Karabagh (even if has not been acknowledged officially)
where the democratic principles are followed and the main institutions of
the state are in place. At the same time, another state with a soultanic regime
where quasi-democratic procedures dominate makes pretensions to Nagorno Karabagh.
À. Ì. - My visits to Nagorno Karabagh have become more frequent, too.
Last time I was here as a member of the delegation of the Union of Armenians
of Russia. To me, the atmosphere here in Karabagh is becoming more and more
satisfactory. I agree with my friend who said that some exigencies and tensions
which existed here are being overcome. This positive shift is also thanks
to the sense of responsibility of the people and the understanding that they
live on the border. Despite the fact that the country has been in the state
of war for 8 years, the people are not desperate. It is an important and highly
positive fact that even in the state of war the democratic institutions and
procedures are in place in Nagorno Karabagh. Of course, it would be much easier
to set up a wartime regime and claim that democracy is not affordable. This
is indicative of the huge inner potential. In fact, NKR should start its way
in the environment of democracy, competitiveness and mutual respect. I have
the impression that there is unanimity with respect of the basic values and
basic problems among the Armenians, especially the people of Nagorno Karabagh
despite the external conflicts and confrontations. People understand that
as a state Nagorno Karabagh can survive, and respect and recognition be achieved
only if unanimity is ensured.
I would like to say a couple of words about the present president of NKR whom
I know since the time when he was the minister of foreign affairs of NKR and
led the negotiations with the representatives of international organizations
in Moscow. It is my pleasure to note that he has gained a colossal experience
as a diplomat and a politician especially in the context of confrontation
which exists among rather serious diplomatic figures of the world. He has
built valuable skills and knowledge from such experience. Nagorno Karabagh
has an intelligent a well-cultures leader which is a rare case in the post-Soviet
environment.
