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Legends and Myths about the Demography of
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Below extracts from
the article of Alexander Arsenyev, a Ph.D. in the area of sociology (cf.: www.Gazetasng.ru,
March 5, 2002). The article is about the demographic and migration processes
in two independent Transcaucasus states, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to the
disclosed but not finalized official data of the census conducted in the Republic
of Armenia in 2001, the primary operative indicator of the registered population
in Armenia is 3,458,000, and after the verification and subtraction of the number
of the factually absent people the indicator totaled 3,002,000 (this figure
indicates the factual, and not registered population).
In Armenia some
representatives of the opposition often referred to fictitious data claiming
that the population in the republic was 2,000,000 or even - 1,500,000. Following
the principle "the worse, the better" the opposition attempted to
motivate its political ambitions and alleged that the authorities had led the
country as far as to a demographic collapse.
Whereas the approximate
figures were given in the article "Political Statistics" in the Internet
"Ãàçåòa ÑÍÃ.ÐÓ." which were computed on the basis of the minimal number
of the population, necessary for annual recruitment of the draftees to the Armed
Forces of Armenia (army, troops of the Ministry of the Interior, State Committee
of National Security). As a matter of fact, these data are open to the public
just like the statistics on the number of these force structures which are published
in the influential international bulletins. The minimal number was approximately
2,700,000. In the above article quite comprehending computations and figures
on the number of the populace of Armenia are given, the birth rate, the natural
increase of the population, the migration of the refugees, etc. during the Soviet
and post-Soviet periods which, in turn, allowed to make projections on the number
of the populace in Armenia, in particular, the number of the people would vary
from 4,100,000 to 4,200,000 if the scenario without the serious migration processes
was considered.
At the same time,
the comparative analysis was conducted with respect of various data on migrants.
The gap between these figures was quite impressive: the data varied from 600,000
(preliminary official figures) or 800,000 given by the Armenian mass media (cf.:
"Delovoy Express", 34, September, 2000) to about 1,500,000. There
is no point in considering the quite senseless figures which are given by the
more enthusiastic "champions for the power" who without analyzing
these statistics on the "remaining population", allegedly claimed
that around 3 million people left the country which has no rational interpretation.
Meanwhile, the "Political
Statistics" where the estimations are based on the maximal number of migrants,
states: "Thus, even under the assumption that 1,5 million people migrated
from Armenia, the populace of the two Armenian state systems, i.e., the Republic
of Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh… can be definitely be estimated as 2,7-2,8 million.
If instead of accepting the "extreme" and obviously exaggerated estimates
about the number of the people who have left Armenia either temporarily or forever,
the average figure of 1,000,000 is considered, it can be concluded that at present
the populace of the Republic of Armenia is approximately 3,1-3,2 million. This
figure sounds more realistic.
In the Russian version of newspaper "Azat Artsakh" of January 19,
2002 the data on the demographic situation in NKR for 2001 were published which
showed that as of January of 2002 the population of the republic was 144,000.
The statistics given in the newspaper are quite realistic if it is considered
that at least around 20,000 of the population constitutes the people who relatively
not long ago settled in Karabagh from Lachin-Kelbajar enclave "stuck"
between RA and NKR.
It was mentioned
in the assessment regarding to number of the population of NKR, "The number
of the Armenians in Nagorno Karabagh is likely to be around 120,000-125,000.
This estimation is based on the statistics given in the local and Armenian newspapers...
Thus, newspaper "Azat Artsakh" (issue of August 5, 2000, Russian version)
referred to the data on the number of the marriages, birth rate in Stepanakert
for the first six months of 2000, gave the seasonal increase in these indicators
for the capital of Nagorno Karabagh during the second half of 2000... So, by
assuming that the birth rate versus 1,000 people is 15 in Nagorno Karabagh,
the number of the population of Stepanakert town can be estimated as 50,000.
According to the mayor of Stepanakert, "over 40% of the population of the
republic inhabits in the capital of Karabagh. It follows that at least 125,000
people reside in the republic." Finally, in case of summing the initial
operative indicator of the registered populace of the Republic of Armenia less
the number of residents who are physically absent, as well as the figures for
NKR without the "migrants" (who had been probably counted twice),
the result will be 3,002 mln plus 125,000, i.e., approximately 3,130,000 for
the two Armenian states. A figure close to the aforementioned one (3,1-3,2 million)
was given in the article "Political Statistics" in October, 2000.
It follows from various sources that during the last two or three years the
average duration of life in Armenia increased after the abrupt decrease in the
mid-90s' which was due to the social-economic and energy crisis. To some extent
the data differ from each other. For example, the Russian version of the Yerevan
newspaper "AZG" ("Nation") placed in the Internet (cf.:
issue of 29.11.01), basing on the statistics of the ÂÎÇ country report "Armenia:
Health in Transition Period" refers to 74,7 years. According to "Nezavisimaya
Gazeta" ("Independent Newspaper") which bases on the data provided
by RBK, a Russian news agency, which, in turn, had obtained these statistics
from an American news agency, Armenia holds the third position among the CIS
states (Estonia and Belarus hold the first and second positions respectively)
by the average duration of life".
A certain increase
in the birth rate has been marked during the last several years. Consequently,
the rates of natural increase of the population of Nagorno Karabagh grew (along
with the growth of the rates of the mechanical increase of the population).
It can be concluded, the aforementioned processes are due not only to the extensive
program of the material assistance to the large households provided by the government
of NKR. Traditionally, the birth rate of the Karabagh Armenians was above the
average rate for the whole Azerbaijan SSR. This tendency continued till the
60s' when the post-war losses, the artificial "displacement" of the
economically active population, especially the young, from the region resulted
in the aging of the populace, and together with other processes contributed
to the decrease of the birth rates. Judging from the aforementioned data on
the demographic situation in NKR, the birth rate in the republic today is approximately
17 people per 1,000, and in the rural regions it reached 18-19 per 1000 which
is above the respective figure for Azerbaijan even if the comparison is made
on the basis of the data for 1999 when the birth rate was 17 per 1000 (speech
of Geydar Aliyev, the president of the Republic of Azerbaijan at the 2nd Youth
Forum of Azerbaijan, "Bakinskie Rabochie" of 06.03.99). As to Azerbaijan,
the actual demographic processes and the number of the population are not disclosed
in the official statistics, to be more precise, they are distortedly reflected
there. Thus, the results of the census, conducted in the Republic of Azerbaijan
on January 27, 1999 showed that the number of the population in Azerbaijan was
7,953,000 (ref.: the statement of the State Committee of Statistics of Azerbaijan
"On the Preliminary Results of Census, 1999", "Bakinskie Rabochiy"
of 31.03.99).
At present around
3,2-3,3 million people live in Azerbaijan, out of which over 2 million reside
in Baku and Apsheron region.
In the article "Paradoxes of Statistics" the detailed explanation
is given on why and how the actual population of the republic of Azerbaijan
is twice less than the official number. Basing on various available data for
the last 12 years, the number of the Armenians, Russians or, in a broader sense,
Slavs, Jews, Tatars, mixed families and Azeris migrated from AzSSR (later -
the Republic of Azerbaijan) was computed. The number of the refugees and migrants
of the "first wave" was deducted from the total number of the population,
and the figure for the natural increase of the population for 1989-99 was added
to the remaining number population (the computation was done on the basis of
the official data). Eventually, the estimated number of the migrants for the
last several years was subtracted (based on the data given in the Russian and
Azeri newspapers).
The statistics on
the migrants from Azerbaijan are really shocking. In 1999 it was known that
at least 3,000,000 Azeris (non-Slavs, Armenians, Jews or Tatars) migrated and
settled in Russia, the CIS and western countries after the break-up of the USSR.
Over 2,000,000 people moved to Russia only. Thus, according to the official
data of the Moscow Municipal Department of the Interior, as late as five years
ago only in Moscow and the Moscow Oblast 800,000 Azeris were registered, while
their total number in the said region (including those who lived there illegally)
reached 1,200,000 million. It should be noted that according to the census of
1989, 21,000 Azeris resided in Moscow (i.e., were registered, at those times
the rules for registration were strictly enforced). According to the same data,
in 1989 the number of the Azeris living in Saint Petersburg was 12,000. Three
years ago it was recorded that the number of the Azeris living in Leningrad
and the Leningrad Oblast was 200,000 (the data were announced by the Saint Petersburg
Municipal Department of the Interior after the assault on the Honorary Consul
of Azerbaijan). The number of the Azeris in the Russian megalopolises increased
dozens of times.
The situation is
the same in many regions of the Russian Federation, in Yekaterinburg, Irkutsk,
Tyumen and other towns. The number of the Azeris in Russia, according to the
estimations of the Azeri Embassy in Russia, is 2,000,000.
Besides, the majority
of the Azerbaijani migrated to the CIS countries, basically, the Ukraine, where
by the year 2000 the number of the Azeri Diaspora reached 500,000 (against 37,000
according to the census of 1989). Many Azeris moved to foreign countries, for
example, Germany, East Europe, but they basically migrated to Turkey. About
half of the population of Nakhichevan has settled in Turkey. According to Husein
Javadov, a member of "National Front" party from Nakhichevan, "every
day 200 residents of Nakhichevan wait in a line in front of the Turkish consulate
for visas. Many of these people buy one-way tickets (cf.: Armenian newspaper
"Azg" of 11.12.01). According to the Azeri newspaper "Zerkalo"
("Mirror"), during the years of independence 3,5 million people migrated
from Azerbaijan, probably, without taking into account those refugees and migrants,
mainly non-Muslims, who had fled from Azerbaijan before that period.
In 2001 Kirill Stolyarov's
book "Break-up. From Nagorno Karabagh to Belovejskaya Pustcha" was
published in Moscow by "Olmo-Press" publishing house. Despite the
implications of the title, the book is mainly devoted to the situation in the
Azerbaijan SSR in 1988-2001 (later called 'the Republic of Azerbaijan') and
the Karabagh conflict. The book, including the section about the Karabagh problem,
is written from the viewpoint of the "patriot of Azerbaijan". Nevertheless,
the main positive character is the former Azeri president Ayaz Moutalibov. Stolyarov
approaches some of the issues objectively and demonstrates awareness about the
actual situation. Thus, referring to the outcomes recorded during the office
of the current president Geydar Aliyev, the author writes, "More than the
half of the population has left the country in search of finding means for living.
During the last seven years over 4,000,000 people (around 60% of the population)
migrated from Azerbaijan…Out of half million Russian-speaking residents less
than 100,000, mainly, the retired, still live in Azerbaijan since they have
nowhere to go." (page 309). At the beginning of 1997 the number of Russians
was 150,000 (this figure was given by Oleg Boyko, the Russian Ambassador to
Azerbaijan in his interview to the Azerbaijani newspaper "Panorama"
of 16.04.97 which also helps to have an idea about the rates of migration.
Thus, the figure
of 6,7-6,75 million (i.e., the number of population residing after the migration
of "non-Azeris", including the natural increase in the population
for 1989-2001) less around 3,5 million of authentic Azeris who left Azerbaijan
(of course, not only the ethnic Turks, but also the representatives of other
ethnic groups, for example, Lezgins, Kurds, Talishes, etc.) will equal to 3,2-3,3
million which reflects the real number of the population in Azerbaijan at present.
The official data
disclosed by the service of statistics of Azerbaijan represent the mere sum
of the average increase in the population of AzSSR for the periods of 1970-79
and 1979-89 and the number of population of Azerbaijan officially declared in
the course of the last census in USSR. According to the official Soviet data,
in 1970-79 the natural increase in the population was recorded to be 911,000,
and in 1979-89 it equaled to 993,000. Today the statistics on the increase of
the population for 1989-99 (932,000) are given without consideration of the
millions of migrants. The fictitious figures about the increase of the population
for the last decade (excluding those who "temporarily reside outside"
Azerbaijan is allegedly only 116,000) are close to the data on the rates of
birth, death and the natural increase of the population, as stated by Mr. Aliyev
in his announcements.
Moreover, the migration
from Azerbaijan has its specifics, i.e., it significantly impacts the sexual-age
structure of the remaining population. For example, as opposed to Armenia, where
the majority of the migrants were married couples and their children, the migrants
from Azerbaijan are mainly young and middle-aged men. Many of them "unofficially"
marry in Russia, Ukraine which is harmful for the institution of marriage in
Azerbaijan. The big number of single or unemployed women gave rise to a problem
which is not so typical for even a formally Muslim country. According to the
Armenian news agency "Noyan Tapan" ("Noah's Arch", February,
2002) which exchanges information with the Azerbaijani "Turan" agency,
"at present the number of the Azeri women put in jail is 6,000 in the United
Arabic Emirates and 10,000 - in Pakistan. These women had left for these countries
in search of "money". These women were deceitfully persuaded to leave
their homeland and were obliged to become prostitutes".
Thus, it appears
that the issue of the number of the population of the Republic of Azerbaijan
is intentionally veiled by the Azeri authorities pursuing the goal of assuring
the international community in the might and the major potential of the Republic
of Azerbaijan and the inevitably leading role of Azerbaijan in Transcaucasus.
This initiative is fully supported by the opposition as well (it should be noted
that in Armenia, on the contrary, the majority of the parties in opposition
intentionally dramatizes the problem of migration for the purpose of taking
the power).
It follows from
the aforementioned that today the mobilization capacity in Azerbaijan is lower
than in Armenia. On the other hand, given the ethnic diversity of Azerbaijan,
and the mono-ethnic character of Armenia where the ethnic minorities (Kurds,
Russians, Aysors and Greeks) are deeply integrated into the Armenian community,
it is obvious that the campaign which is launched by the Azeri authorities in
the course of the previous year for scaring its neighbors and the international
community with the threat of the new war "for liberation of Karabagh"
is of mere propaganda value. It is most likely that the assertions of the official
Baku on the military interference of the external forces, in particular, Turkey,
NATO, etc.
Finalizing the results
of the demographic analysis, the following conclusions are drawn in the article:
7-7,5 million people have left either temporarily or forever the Transcaucasus
region since 1988. Out of these people around 4,5 million constitute the residents
of Azerbaijan, 1,5-1,7 million - Georgia and at least 1,1 million people moved
from Armenia. Today the actual population in these countries is as follows:
Georgia - about 4,1-4,2 million, Azerbaijan - 3,2-3,3 million, Armenia (including
Nagorno Karabagh)- 3,1-3,2 million. In addition, Georgia is the first by the
number of its population versus the previously held second position, Armenia
has been the third whereas Azerbaijan has shifted from the first position to
the second and is rapidly moving towards the third position because the migration
process not only does not decrease, as it is the case in Armenia, but grows
at rather high rates.
This realistic picture
does not have anything in common with the vast number of legends and myths about
the current demographic situation in Transcaucasus.
